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Cake day: December 31st, 2023

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  • That’s just a pressure tactic. They’re not actually hilding off on talks for years

    From a crisis bargaining perspective, it makes perfect sense to say but little sense to actually do

    Iran doesn’t need to beat the US militarily, it just needs to hold out until Trump loses politically. Saying there will be no talks adds to that pressure. Waiting 3 years leaves too much room for markets to adjust, or the US to find a strategy out of this quagmire

    They’ll deal when Trump is desperate enough to agree to the bulk of their terms

    Edit: Since this will be an unpopular comment without providing some proof

    March 23rd: Trump claims deal is close, Iran denies talks are taking place

    2 days later…

    March 25th: Iran rejects US deal, counters with their own

    Both countries lied here, for different reasons. Trump wanted to assauge the markets, Iran wanted to project the stronger bargaining position

    Saying there are no talks is a negotiating tactic Iran frequently uses, although we don’t need historical precedence to know that’s the case. Any rational actor would still engage in negotiations, and Iran has generally acted rationally in this war. They also like to use indirect negotiations to save face, as they did in my example