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Cake day: July 30th, 2023

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  • I tried not to conflate absolute and relative risk. The numbers I was going with came from the link I posted, which was not from a science journalist, but from the US National Cancer Institute. Also, note that the comment you replied to was more about an off the cuff comparison of the risk between CT scans and drinking alcohol. It wasn’t meant to present scientific rigour.

    Below is directly from the linked article, emphasis mine:

    Using data from Australia, recalculated using US standard drinks, the recent Surgeon General’s Advisory reports that

    • among 100 women who have less than one drink per week, about 17 will develop an alcohol-related cancer
    • among 100 women who have one drink a day, 19 will develop an alcohol-related cancer
    • among 100 women who have two drinks a day, about 22 will develop an alcohol-related cancer

    This means that women who have one drink a day have an absolute increase in the risk of an alcohol-related cancer of 2 per 100, and those who have two drinks a day an absolute increase of 5 per 100, compared with those who have less than one drink a week. For men, the number of alcohol-related cancers per 100 is 10 for those who have less than one drink a week, 11 for those who have one drink a day (an increase of 1 per 100), and 13 for those who have two drinks a day (an increase of 3 per 100).


  • From the WHO article:

    Ethanol (alcohol) causes cancer through biological mechanisms as the compound breaks down in the body, which means that any beverage containing alcohol, regardless of its price and quality, poses a risk of developing cancer.

    Risks start from the first drop

    To identify a “safe” level of alcohol consumption, valid scientific evidence would need to demonstrate that at and below a certain level, there is no risk of illness or injury associated with alcohol consumption. The new WHO statement clarifies: currently available evidence cannot indicate the existence of a threshold at which the carcinogenic effects of alcohol “switch on” and start to manifest in the human body.

    So no, you’re wrong, it specifically says your example is not “safe”. They said “beverage”, but consuming alcohol laden fruit would fall in the same category. The same would go for many “non-alcoholic” beers which are <0.5% alcohol, and many other things like kombucha, baked goods, chocolate, etc. You can debate whether they’re correct or not, but they were very clear that tiny amounts are not safe.

    Now, it’s all about risk. And the more alcohol consumed, the higher the risk of developing cancer. The question is at what point the benefits outweigh the risk. Benefits could range from vitamins, minerals, fiber and healthy compounds, to reduced social anxiety and other psychological factors.