“So drones doing the observation. They’re also doing, you know, almost all the strikes, right?.. What that means is that on both sides there are vulnerabilities because ultimately UAVs are doing all this. There aren’t necessarily first, second third line of, you know, infantry positions. The density of infantry is quite low… and on the russian side, you know, you don’t have minefields really in front of the Forward Line Of Troops, right? They do remote mining behind Ukraine positions but not really in front of them and it really comes down to Mavic and FPV teams, right? And if you can locate them, if you can degrade them, you can suppress them, um that’s really what is holding the defenses. If you can do an armored kind of assault, you get 5, 7, 10 km past the frontline that’s where those FPV teams are. And if the ystart running away because you are near their positions, there’s nothing really holding the line that well. So, I think there are some prospects for Ukraine to do some armored assaults this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if they have some successes.” -Rob Lee
Buckle up, the news of the death of armored warfare has been greatly exaggerated and people are going to have to start changing their tune on this fast as reality hits like a freight train.
We’re joined today by Rob Lee. Rob is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and in my opinion, one of the leading American analysts of the war. We talk through his recent trip to the front where he explains how logistics vehicles are now essentially disposable, where Ukraine may attempt offensive operations this year and details on how the Middle Strike campaign is playing out right now.
We just scratched the surface here so you can hear more of Rob’s insights at Two Marines on Substack and his new podcast Ukraine Military history which covers the strategy, intel and defense tech of this conflict.
I think this is probably the most current, accurate analysis you are going to get of the Ukraine war (at least in english) right now.