Democrat Alex Holladay is projected to win the special election to represent Arkansas’s House District 70, edging out Republican Bo Renshaw, according to Decision Desk HQ.

Arkansas is clearly one of the nation’s more reliably red states, but Holladay was running in a politically quirky area: According to calculations from The Downballot, Donald Trump carried this district by 4 points in 2020, but Kamala Harris won the same district by 2 points in the 2024 cycle.

Arkansas is a difficult state for Democrats to win for many reasons. However, just like with any other red state there are purple and blue pockets. One of those purple districts was Arkansas HD-70, which MVP Harris won by a +2 margin in 2024. The GOP incumbent won this seat 51%-49% at the same time.